Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.054801 2.176764 2.305046 2.450525 2.611532 2.784972 2.986878
2025-09-21 1.849979 2.014717 2.196146 2.412479 2.665698 2.955643 3.317127
2025-09-28 1.709573 1.895374 2.106271 2.366432 2.683149 3.062296 3.560345
2025-10-05 1.645968 1.853341 2.095036 2.402427 2.790451 3.275051 3.945375
2025-10-12 1.596781 1.821817 2.090136 2.440657 2.897791 3.491542 4.354652
2025-10-19 1.551673 1.790525 2.080992 2.469535 2.991397 3.694326 4.766028
2025-10-26 1.494628 1.740155 2.043450 2.456965 3.025954 3.816153 5.071772
2025-11-02 1.443859 1.694368 2.008163 2.443418 3.055743 3.930812 5.377793
2025-11-09 1.392378 1.644815 1.964763 2.415118 3.060959 4.007520 5.630231
2025-11-16 1.344489 1.597547 1.921643 2.383870 3.058367 4.070194 5.864948
2025-11-23 1.313502 1.570783 1.904103 2.386508 3.104423 4.210585 6.253211
2025-11-30 1.290810 1.553766 1.898469 2.404968 3.174424 4.394366 6.749002
2025-12-07 1.250187 1.511851 1.857746 2.371559 3.163908 4.446981 7.008159
2025-12-14 1.211063 1.470628 1.816344 2.334983 3.145812 4.484818 7.244332
2025-12-21 1.172114 1.428321 1.771745 2.291291 3.113156 4.493734 7.420707
2025-12-28 1.160940 1.423397 1.779159 2.325438 3.208014 4.737354 8.156477
2026-01-04 1.151095 1.419763 1.787952 2.361688 3.308431 5.001994 9.008142
2026-01-11 1.139090 1.412577 1.791131 2.389059 3.395401 5.251048 9.893268
2026-01-18 1.116268 1.389426 1.770133 2.377146 3.413054 5.365128 10.454899
2026-01-25 1.094392 1.366943 1.749267 2.364306 3.427903 5.474719 11.036091
2026-02-01 1.069701 1.339773 1.720560 2.337474 3.415698 5.526372 11.461626
2026-02-08 1.045392 1.312534 1.690915 2.307836 3.396472 5.561037 11.846547
2026-02-15 1.030863 1.298942 1.681208 2.310339 3.436512 5.729069 12.726661